tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay LAX departures

Model raises LAX departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 58%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View LAXFlights at LAX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 43% delay risk for LAX departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 121 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Sunday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)43% over 121 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 1:00 AM PST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 54%

    What changed: 43% → 54% since the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 122 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Sunday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 122 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 6:00 AM PST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 14:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises LAX departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 58%

    What changed: 54% → 58% since the 6:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 122 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Sunday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 122 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 8:00 AM PST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 12:00 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.