tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay LAX departures

Model raises LAX departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 56%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
Create monitor View LAXFlights at LAX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 53% delay risk for LAX departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 183 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 183 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 10:00 PM PST · 9.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday at 42%

    What changed: 53% → 42% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 184 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 184 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 4:00 AM PST · 3.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises LAX departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 55%

    What changed: 42% → 55% since the 4:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 184 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 184 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 6:00 AM PST · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 14:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises LAX departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 56%

    What changed: 55% → 56% since the 6:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 184 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 184 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 8:00 AM PST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 9:00 AM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.