Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 68%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 49% delay risk for LAX departures 6–9 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 81 departures scheduled from LAX 6–9 PM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 49% over 81 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM PST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises LAX departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 57%
What changed: 49% → 57% since the 7:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 81 departures scheduled from LAX 6–9 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 57% over 81 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM PST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 68%
What changed: 57% → 68% since the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 81 departures scheduled from LAX 6–9 PM Saturday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 68% over 81 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM PST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 18:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?