Model raises LAX departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 69%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 56% delay risk for LAX departures 3–6 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from LAX 3–6 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 56% over 108 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM PST · 8.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers LAX departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 54%
What changed: 56% → 54% since the 5:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from LAX 3–6 PM Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 108 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM PST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises LAX departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 59%
What changed: 54% → 59% since the 6:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from LAX 3–6 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 59% over 108 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM PST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises LAX departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 69%
What changed: 59% → 69% since the 7:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from LAX 3–6 PM Saturday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 69% over 108 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM PST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?