tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay LAX departures

Model raises LAX departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 72%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
5
Create monitor View LAXFlights at LAX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 51% delay risk for LAX departures noon–3 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 115 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises LAX departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 60%

    What changed: 51% → 60% since the 1:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 115 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts LAX departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 46%

    What changed: 60% → 46% since the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 115 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises LAX departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 62%

    What changed: 46% → 62% since the 3:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Saturday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)62% over 115 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 5:00 AM PST · 5.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises LAX departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 72%

    What changed: 62% → 72% since the 5:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 117 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Saturday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)72% over 117 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 9:00 AM PST · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 12:01 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.