tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay AUS departures

Model raises Austin departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 51%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Austin departures 3–6 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Monday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 5:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 64 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 5:00 AM CDT · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Austin departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 51%

    What changed: 40% → 51% since the 5:00 AM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Monday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 64 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 1:00 PM CDT · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 18:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Oct 19, 3:00 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.