Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among SFO departures 6–9 PM Saturday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 8 cancellations among SFO departures 6–9 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 54 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.8 over 54 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM PST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among SFO departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 8 → 12 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 54 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~12.2 over 54 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM PST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among SFO departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 12 → 18 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 54 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (33%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~17.9 over 54 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM PST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 4 among SFO departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 18 → 4 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 54 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~4.4 over 54 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM PST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 6 among SFO departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 4 → 6 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 53 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.5 over 53 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM PST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 18:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among SFO departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 6 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 54 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.7 over 54 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM PST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 20:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?