Model raises SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 71%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 45% delay risk for SFO departures 6–9 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 54 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 45% over 54 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM PST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 58%
What changed: 45% → 58% since the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 54 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Saturday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 54 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM PST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 71%
What changed: 58% → 71% since the 9:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Saturday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 11:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 71% over 53 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM PST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?