Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday at 64%
- Current state
- Developing
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 47% delay risk for SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 47% over 58 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM PST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 18:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday at 64%
What changed: 47% → 64% since the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 64% over 58 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM PST · 8.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?