tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation IND departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Indianapolis departures 6–9 AM Sunday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 6 cancellations among Indianapolis departures 6–9 AM Sunday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 43 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetIND departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.7 over 43 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 8:00 PM EST · 8.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 02:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Indianapolis departures 6–9 AM Sunday

    What changed: about 6 → 4 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 43 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetIND departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~4.3 over 43 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 3:00 AM EST · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 08:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Indianapolis departures 6–9 AM Sunday

    What changed: about 4 → 14 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 44 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (33%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetIND departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~14.5 over 44 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 6:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.