tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model raises San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 55%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View SANFlights at SAN

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 43% delay risk for San Diego departures noon–3 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Monday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)43% over 75 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 10:00 AM PDT · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 55%

    What changed: 43% → 55% since the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Monday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 75 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 11:00 AM PDT · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 18:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Oct 19, 12:01 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.