tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 59 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 54%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View SANFlights at SAN

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 43% delay risk for San Diego departures 3–6 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Monday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)43% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 10:00 AM PDT · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 54%

    What changed: 43% → 54% since the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Monday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 2:00 PM PDT · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Mon Oct 19, 3:02 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.