Updated model puts Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday at 64%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 54% delay risk for Atlanta departures 6–9 PM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 207 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Sunday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 207 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Atlanta departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday at 64%
What changed: 54% → 64% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 207 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ATL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 64% over 207 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 8:00 AM EST · 8.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 14:25 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?