Model lowers expected cancellations among Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Sunday to about 3
- Current state
- Resolved at 8:56 AM PST
- Started
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 7 cancellations among Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 41 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.3 over 41 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM PST · 6.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 7 → 3 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 41 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.1 over 41 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM PST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 14:25 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations among Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Sunday to about 3
What changed: about 3 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 41 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~2.9 over 41 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 8:00 AM PST · 3.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?