tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay SMF departures

Model raises Sacramento departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 55%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
5
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 35 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 10:00 PM PST · 9.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Sacramento departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday at 53%

    What changed: 41% → 53% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 35 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 12:00 AM PST · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 08:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 40%

    What changed: 53% → 40% since the 12:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 35 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 2:00 AM PST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Sacramento departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 54%

    What changed: 40% → 54% since the 2:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 35 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 7:00 AM PST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 15:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  5. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Sacramento departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 55%

    What changed: 54% → 55% since the 7:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 35 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 8:00 AM PST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sun Nov 15, 9:00 AM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.