tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Major Developing Delay SMF departures

Model raises Sacramento departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 69%

Current state
Developing
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View SMFFlights at SMF

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 55% delay risk for Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 25 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 4:00 AM PST · 9.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Sacramento departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday at 59%

    What changed: 55% → 59% since the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Sunday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)59% over 25 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 5:00 AM PST · 8.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 14:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Sacramento departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 69%

    What changed: 59% → 69% since the 5:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Sunday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSMF departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)69% over 25 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 9:00 AM PST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?