Model raises Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 66%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Sunday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 41 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM PST · 11.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 08:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 53%
What changed: 41% → 53% since the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Sunday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 53% over 41 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 3:00 AM PST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 55%
What changed: 53% → 55% since the 3:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 41 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM PST · 6.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 66%
What changed: 55% → 66% since the 4:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Sunday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SMF departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 66% over 41 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 7:00 AM PST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 15:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?