Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 53%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Midway departures 6–9 PM Monday
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 41 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 19, 1:00 PM CDT · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-19 18:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 52%
What changed: 42% → 52% since the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 52% over 41 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 19, 2:00 PM CDT · 2.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-19 20:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 61%
What changed: 52% → 61% since the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Monday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 61% over 41 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 19, 4:00 PM CDT · 1.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-19 21:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 53%
What changed: 61% → 53% since the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Monday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 5:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 53% over 41 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 19, 5:00 PM CDT · 0.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-19 22:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Mon Oct 19, 6:01 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.