Model raises Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 63%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 54% delay risk for Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Monday
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-19 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 33 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 19, 2:00 PM CDT · 5.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-19 20:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 61%
What changed: 54% → 61% since the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-19 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 61% over 33 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 19, 4:00 PM CDT · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-19 21:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 54%
What changed: 61% → 54% since the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 6:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-19 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 33 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 19, 6:00 PM CDT · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-19 23:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 63%
What changed: 54% → 63% since the 6:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 7:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-19 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 63% over 33 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 19, 7:00 PM CDT · 0.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-20 01:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Mon Oct 19, 9:01 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.