tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SFO departures

Model raises SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 63%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
7
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 10:00 PM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 75 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Oct 21, 10:00 PM PDT · 22.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 05:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday at 61%

    What changed: 44% → 61% since the 10:00 PM PDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 79 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 12:00 PM PDT · 7.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 20:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 53%

    What changed: 61% → 53% since the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 79 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 1:00 PM PDT · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 68%

    What changed: 53% → 68% since the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)68% over 79 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 2:00 PM PDT · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 55%

    What changed: 68% → 55% since the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 3:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 79 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 3:00 PM PDT · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 22:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  6. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 57%

    What changed: 55% → 57% since the 3:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 79 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 4:00 PM PDT · 4.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  7. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 63%

    What changed: 57% → 63% since the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 81 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 7:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)63% over 81 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 7:00 PM PDT · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Thu Oct 22, 9:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.