Model raises SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 69%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 6
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 48% delay risk for SFO departures 3–6 PM Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 48% over 90 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Oct 21, 4:00 PM PDT · 22.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-21 23:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 58%
What changed: 48% → 58% since the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 12:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 91 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Oct 22, 12:00 AM PDT · 13.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday at 53%
What changed: 58% → 53% since the 12:00 AM PDT forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Thursday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 53% over 91 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Oct 22, 4:00 AM PDT · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday at 56%
What changed: 53% → 56% since the 4:00 AM PDT forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Thursday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 7:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 56% over 91 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Oct 22, 7:00 AM PDT · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 14:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 53%
What changed: 56% → 53% since the 7:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Thursday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 53% over 91 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Oct 22, 10:00 AM PDT · 4.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 69%
What changed: 53% → 69% since the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Thursday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 69% over 93 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Oct 22, 12:00 PM PDT · 1.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 20:25 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Thu Oct 22, 3:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.