tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories <1 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 76 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SFO departures

Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 58%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
7
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 48% delay risk for SFO departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 6:00 PM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 78 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Oct 21, 6:00 PM PDT · 22.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 02:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday at 55%

    What changed: 48% → 55% since the 6:00 PM PDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 8:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 78 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 8:00 AM PDT · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 15:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday at 46%

    What changed: 55% → 46% since the 8:00 AM PDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 78 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 9:00 AM PDT · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 66%

    What changed: 46% → 66% since the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)66% over 78 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 12:00 PM PDT · 4.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 20:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 56%

    What changed: 66% → 56% since the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 78 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 1:00 PM PDT · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  6. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 70%

    What changed: 56% → 70% since the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)70% over 78 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 2:00 PM PDT · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  7. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 58%

    What changed: 70% → 58% since the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 3:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 78 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 3:00 PM PDT · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 22:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Thu Oct 22, 6:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.