Model lowers SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 50%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 11:57 AM PDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 48% delay risk for SFO departures noon–3 PM Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 121 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 48% over 121 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Oct 21, 1:00 PM PDT · 22.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-21 20:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday at 65%
What changed: 48% → 65% since the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 121 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Thursday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 2:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 65% over 121 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Oct 22, 2:00 AM PDT · 9.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 09:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 50%
What changed: 65% → 50% since the 2:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 121 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 3:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 50% over 121 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Oct 22, 3:00 AM PDT · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 50%, near normal
What changed: 50% → 50%; calm-weather level 43%
Tailodds’ model gives the 125 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 50% over 125 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Oct 22, 11:00 AM PDT · 0.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 18:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?