Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 33%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 7:27 AM PDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 42% delay risk for San Diego departures noon–3 PM Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Thursday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 12:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 75 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Oct 22, 12:00 AM PDT · 10.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 33%, near normal
What changed: 42% → 33%; calm-weather level 26%
Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Thursday an average 33% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 6:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 33% over 75 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Oct 22, 6:00 AM PDT · 4.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 14:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?