tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay SAN departures

Updated model puts San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday at 65%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View SANFlights at SAN

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 49% delay risk for San Diego departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Thursday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 8:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)49% over 59 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 8:00 AM PDT · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 15:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday at 65%

    What changed: 49% → 65% since the 8:00 AM PDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Thursday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)65% over 59 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 12:00 PM PDT · 4.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 20:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Thu Oct 22, 6:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.