tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 67%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
5
Create monitor View SANFlights at SAN

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 40% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 35 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 11:00 AM PDT · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 18:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 53%

    What changed: 40% → 53% since the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 35 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 1:00 PM PDT · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 57%

    What changed: 53% → 57% since the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 35 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 2:00 PM PDT · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 52%

    What changed: 57% → 52% since the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 3:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 35 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 3:00 PM PDT · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 22:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 67%

    What changed: 52% → 67% since the 3:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)67% over 35 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 8:00 PM PDT · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Oct 22, 9:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.