tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning <1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 70%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View SANFlights at SAN

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 49% delay risk for San Diego departures 3–6 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Thursday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)49% over 62 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 11:00 AM PDT · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 18:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 59%

    What changed: 49% → 59% since the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Thursday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)59% over 62 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 12:00 PM PDT · 1.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 20:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 70%

    What changed: 59% → 70% since the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Thursday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)70% over 63 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 2:00 PM PDT · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Oct 22, 3:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.