tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay MDW departures

Model raises Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 70%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
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Updates
2
Create monitor View MDWFlights at MDW

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 54% delay risk for Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 3:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 34 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 3:00 PM CDT · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 70%

    What changed: 54% → 70% since the 3:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 7:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)70% over 35 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 7:00 PM CDT · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Oct 22, 9:00 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.