tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories <1 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 65 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 1 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay STL departures

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for St Louis departures 6–9 PM Thursday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View STLFlights at STL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for St Louis departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 34 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 4:00 PM CDT · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Thu Oct 22, 6:01 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.