tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories <1 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 65 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 1 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay STL departures

Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 77%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View STLFlights at STL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 54% delay risk for St Louis departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 5:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 17 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 5:00 PM CDT · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 22:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 77%

    What changed: 54% → 77% since the 5:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 77% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 7:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSTL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)77% over 17 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 7:00 PM CDT · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Oct 22, 9:00 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.