tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories <1 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 64 minLightning <1 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay DAL departures

Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 62%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View DALFlights at DAL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Love Field departures 3–6 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 5:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 37 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 5:00 AM CDT · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 62%

    What changed: 51% → 62% since the 5:00 AM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 12:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)62% over 37 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 12:00 PM CDT · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Oct 23, 3:01 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.