Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Of 59 departures that took off between 1:32 PM and 2:32 PM EST, 34 left at least 15 minutes late. Atlanta typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 50% → 57% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 164 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 59% → 50% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 166 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 54% → 59% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 166 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 59%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 80 departures that took off between 10:46 AM and 11:46 AM EST, 51 left at least 15 minutes late. Atlanta typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:46 AM–11:46 AM ESTSample 80 flightsLate 64%Typical 16%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (3)View ATL
Of 52 arrivals that landed between 10:30 AM and 11:30 AM EST, 24 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 17% of arrivals at Atlanta arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:30 AM–11:30 AM ESTSample 52 flightsLate 46%Typical 17%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View ATL
Tailodds’ model gives the 166 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 54%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 57% → 69% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 247 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Sunday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 54% → 64% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 207 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 64%Horizon 8.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 57% → 69% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 209 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Sunday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 46 departures that took off between 8:01 AM and 9:01 AM EST, 23 left at least 15 minutes late. Atlanta typically sees 10% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:01 AM–9:01 AM ESTSample 46 flightsLate 50%Typical 10%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (3)View ATL
Tailodds’ model gives the 207 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Sunday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 54%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 50% → 57% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 247 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Sunday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 6.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 30 arrivals that landed between 6:31 AM and 7:31 AM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 17% of arrivals at Atlanta arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 27% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:31 AM–7:31 AM ESTSample 30 flightsLate 27%Typical 17%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (4)View ATL
What changed: 50% → 57% since the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 209 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Sunday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 49% → 55% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 264 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 5:54 AM and 6:54 AM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 17% of arrivals at Atlanta arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 5:54 AM–6:54 AM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 33%Typical 17%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (4)View ATL
Tailodds’ model gives the 247 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 163 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 AM Sunday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 210 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 60% → 49% since the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 265 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 49%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 46% → 60% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 267 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 60%Horizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 267 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 46%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 160 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 AM Sunday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 49 arrivals that landed between 4:54 PM and 5:54 PM EST, 33 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 17% of arrivals at Atlanta arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.