Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 hstaleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 hstaleWeather observations no datastaleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old).
No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.
Lightning is stale (222 h old).
Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.
Weather observations is stale.
Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.
What changed: 47% → 35% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Friday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 50% → 38% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Friday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 50% → 38% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 96 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Friday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 38%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 31 arrivals that landed between 11:32 PM and 12:32 AM EST, 23 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:32 PM–12:32 AM ESTSample 31 flightsLate 74%Typical 26%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (4)View BOS
Of 20 arrivals that landed between 10:57 PM and 11:57 PM EST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 19 departures that took off between 9:34 PM and 10:34 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 99 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 61% → 60% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 26 departures that took off between 5:12 PM and 6:12 PM EST, 17 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 19 departures that took off between 4:06 PM and 5:06 PM EST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 52% → 61% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 61%Horizon 5.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 58% → 71% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Thursday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 28 arrivals that landed between 2:03 PM and 3:03 PM EST, 18 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 25 arrivals that landed between 1:36 PM and 2:36 PM EST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 15 departures that took off between 1:24 PM and 2:24 PM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 55% → 58% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 58%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 60% → 52% since the 9:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 57% → 55% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Thursday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 96 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Thursday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.