tailodds FORECAST

Wire

Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.

Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 226 h staleForecast cycle 2 hLightning 226 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (226 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (226 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

News desk major developments and corrections Airport operations restrictions, deterioration, recovery
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Clear
Type: Cancellation ×Airport: DCA × Clear filters
Cards Terminal
Latest per event All updates
EDT, Oct 17 26 days ago
Forecast Informational Resolved Resolution Cancellation DCA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among National departures noon–3 PM Saturday to about 2

What changed: about 3 → 2

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 65 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (3) 2 earlier matching updates View DCA

Each item is the latest update matching your filters; the event’s current status is on its chip. All updates shows the full chronological wire.

Confirmed
An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?

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Matches: Type: Cancellation · Airport: DCA. Alerts arrive as in-app notifications here; email isn’t switched on for this site.

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