tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 224 h staleForecast cycle 83 minLightning 224 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (224 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (224 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation DCA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among National departures noon–3 PM Saturday to about 2

Current state
Resolved at 11:57 AM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 5 cancellations among National departures noon–3 PM Saturday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 65 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-17 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.4 over 65 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 9:00 AM EDT · 1.7 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 14:17 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among National departures noon–3 PM Saturday

    What changed: about 5 → 3 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM EDT forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 65 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-17 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~3.5 over 65 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 10:00 AM EDT · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 14:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations among National departures noon–3 PM Saturday to about 2

    What changed: about 3 → 2

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 65 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-17 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~1.9 over 65 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 11:00 AM EDT · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 15:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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