tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning <1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 1 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay DCA departures

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for National departures noon–3 PM Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View DCAFlights at DCA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 46% delay risk for National departures noon–3 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from National noon–3 PM Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 9:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 65 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 9:00 AM EDT · 1.7 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 14:17 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sat Oct 17, 12:01 PM EDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.