Model lowers National departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 41%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 11:57 AM EDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 49% delay risk for National departures 3–6 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 9:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 49% over 61 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 9:00 AM EDT · 4.7 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 14:17 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers National departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 41%, near normal
What changed: 49% → 41%; calm-weather level 35%
Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 11:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 61 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 11:00 AM EDT · 3.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 15:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?