Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 hstaleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 223 hstaleWeather observations no datastaleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
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Lightning is stale (223 h old).
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Of 13 departures that took off between 10:22 PM and 11:22 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 45% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 62% → 75% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 7:47 PM and 8:47 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Thursday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 7:26 PM and 8:26 PM CST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 17 departures that took off between 2:41 PM and 3:41 PM CST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Hobby noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 15 departures that took off between 8:30 PM and 9:30 PM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 69% → 60% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 64% → 61% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Monday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Hobby 3–6 PM Monday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Hobby noon–3 PM Monday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 36%Horizon 4.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 8:30 PM and 9:30 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 73% → 61% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 18 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 73% → 65% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Sunday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 14 departures that took off between 2:54 PM and 3:54 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Hobby 3–6 PM Sunday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 9:27 PM and 10:27 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 13 departures that took off between 8:17 PM and 9:17 PM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 79% → 67% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 79% → 72% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Friday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Hobby 3–6 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 69% → 59% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 7:24 PM and 8:24 PM CST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 16 departures that took off between 2:56 PM and 3:56 PM CST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View HOU
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