Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 hstaleForecast cycle 64 minLightning 222 hstaleWeather observations no datastaleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min
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Of 15 departures that took off between 12:16 AM and 1:16 AM PST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 12:16 AM–1:16 AM PSTSample 15 flightsLate 27%Typical 18%
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:47 PM and 12:47 AM PST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:47 PM–12:47 AM PSTSample 16 flightsLate 62%Typical 19%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View LAX
Tailodds’ model gives the 94 departures scheduled from LAX 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 183 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 40%Horizon 10.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Of 24 departures that took off between 8:24 PM and 9:24 PM PST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from LAX 6–9 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from LAX 3–6 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 121 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 22 departures that took off between 5:49 AM and 6:49 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 18% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:49 AM–6:49 AM PSTSample 22 flightsLate 5%Typical 8%
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 5:33 AM and 6:33 AM PST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:33 AM–6:33 AM PSTSample 17 flightsLate 18%Typical 19%
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:40 PM and 12:40 AM PST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 11:40 PM–12:40 AM PSTSample 16 flightsLate 25%Typical 19%
Of 43 arrivals that landed between 7:32 PM and 8:32 PM PST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 28 departures that took off between 2:27 PM and 3:27 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 18 arrivals that landed between 5:21 AM and 6:21 AM PST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 32 minutes across 15 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:21 AM–6:21 AM PSTSample 18 flightsLate 11%Typical 19%
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 5:50 AM and 6:50 AM PST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:50 AM–6:50 AM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 23%Typical 19%
Of 22 departures that took off between 5:50 AM and 6:50 AM PST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 18% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:50 AM–6:50 AM PSTSample 22 flightsLate 0%Typical 8%
Of 23 arrivals that landed between 6:26 AM and 7:26 AM PST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:26 AM–7:26 AM PSTSample 23 flightsLate 9%Typical 19%
Of 26 departures that took off between 5:48 AM and 6:48 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 18% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:48 AM–6:48 AM PSTSample 26 flightsLate 4%Typical 8%
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 5:27 AM and 6:27 AM PST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:27 AM–6:27 AM PSTSample 15 flightsLate 13%Typical 19%
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 5:11 AM and 6:11 AM PST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 15 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:11 AM–6:11 AM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 15%Typical 19%
Tailodds’ model gives the 144 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 22 departures that took off between 5:37 AM and 6:37 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 18% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:37 AM–6:37 AM PSTSample 22 flightsLate 5%Typical 8%
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 5:21 AM and 6:21 AM PST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:21 AM–6:21 AM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 25%Typical 19%
Tailodds’ model gives the 159 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Monday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 37%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 207 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Monday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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