Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 hstaleForecast cycle 85 minLightning 223 hstaleWeather observations no datastaleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 4 min
FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old).
No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.
Lightning is stale (223 h old).
Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.
Weather observations is stale.
Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 7:20 PM and 8:20 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Kansas City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of the 22 departures scheduled from Kansas City (MCI) between 5:38 PM and 7:08 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 15. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into MCI is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 5:38 PM–7:08 PM CSTTight turns 8 of 15Share 53%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View MCI
Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 5:25 PM and 6:25 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 4:41 PM and 5:41 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Kansas City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Kansas City 6–9 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 13 departures that took off between 12:31 PM and 1:31 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 12 departures that took off between 11:23 AM and 12:23 PM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for Kansas City (MCI) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 8:53 PM CST. The latest, at 9:53 PM CST, reports ceiling 1200 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 9 kt gusting to 19 kt.
What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for Kansas City (MCI) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 3:53 PM CST. The latest, at 4:43 PM CST, reports ceiling 1000 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 9 kt gusting to 19 kt.
Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for Kansas City (MCI) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 5:53 AM CST. The latest, at 5:58 AM CST, reports light rain; mist, ceiling 2000 ft, visibility 3 mi, wind 7 kt.
What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for Kansas City (MCI) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 2:22 AM CST. The latest, at 3:02 AM CST, reports light rain, ceiling 7500 ft, visibility 9 mi, wind 7 kt.
What changed: thunderstorm with rain → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for Kansas City (MCI) in the last 50 minutes reports a thunderstorm; it was last reported at 12:08 AM CST. The latest, at 12:25 AM CST, reports light rain, ceiling 2200 ft, visibility 9 mi, wind 15 kt gusting to 25 kt.
What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for Kansas City (MCI) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 12:00 AM CST. The latest, at 12:25 AM CST, reports light rain, ceiling 2200 ft, visibility 9 mi, wind 15 kt gusting to 25 kt.
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 7:07 PM and 8:07 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Kansas City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 12 departures that took off between 5:20 PM and 6:20 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: light thunderstorm with rain → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for Kansas City (MCI) in the last 50 minutes reports a thunderstorm; it was last reported at 4:53 PM CST. The latest, at 5:16 PM CST, reports light rain; mist, ceiling 3500 ft, visibility 6 mi, wind 9 kt.
No official weather observation (METAR) for Kansas City (MCI) in the last 50 minutes reports a thunderstorm; it was last reported at 3:17 PM CST. The latest, at 3:53 PM CST, reports ceiling 3700 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 11 kt.
What changed: 41% → 51% since the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Kansas City 3–6 PM Monday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 51%Horizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Kansas City noon–3 PM Monday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 41%Horizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for Kansas City (MCI) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 11:53 PM CST. The latest, at 12:33 AM CST, reports no ceiling, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 11 kt.
What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for Kansas City (MCI) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 10:53 PM CST. The latest, at 11:13 PM CST, reports light rain, ceiling 4300 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 10 kt.
Of 13 departures that took off between 6:31 PM and 7:31 PM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Kansas City typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View MCI
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Observed
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