Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 54%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 47% → 57% since the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 47%Horizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 50% → 92%
Of 12 departures that took off between 10:06 PM and 11:06 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 55% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:06 PM–11:06 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 92%Typical 55%
What changed: late share 55% → 92%
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 8:30 PM and 9:30 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:30 PM–9:30 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 92%Typical 22%
Of 20 arrivals that landed between 8:09 PM and 9:09 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:09 PM–9:09 PM CSTSample 20 flightsLate 55%Typical 22%
What changed: 69% → 63%; calm-weather level 57%
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 57%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 63%Horizon 1.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 69%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Thursday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 60%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 20 departures that took off between 1:17 PM and 2:17 PM CST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 1:17 PM–2:17 PM CSTSample 20 flightsLate 50%Typical 24%
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 100% at worst → 17% now
Of 23 departures that took off between 8:41 PM and 9:41 PM CST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 51% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 8:41 PM–9:41 PM CSTSample 23 flightsLate 17%Typical 51%
What changed: late share 74% → 100%
Of 15 departures that took off between 6:49 PM and 7:49 PM CST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:49 PM–7:49 PM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 100%Typical 41%
Of 23 departures that took off between 6:28 PM and 7:28 PM CST, 17 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 42% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:28 PM–7:28 PM CSTSample 23 flightsLate 74%Typical 42%
What changed: late share 75% at worst → 28% now
Of 18 departures that took off between 1:09 PM and 2:09 PM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 1:09 PM–2:09 PM CSTSample 18 flightsLate 28%Typical 24%
What changed: late share 50% → 73%
Of 15 departures that took off between 10:34 AM and 11:34 AM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:34 AM–11:34 AM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 73%Typical 29%
Of 20 departures that took off between 10:13 AM and 11:13 AM CST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:13 AM–11:13 AM CSTSample 20 flightsLate 50%Typical 16%
What changed: 46% → 38%; calm-weather level 30%
Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 38%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 42% → 29%; calm-weather level 25%
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 29%Horizon 6.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 46%Horizon 15.6 hModel famA-fc-v3
What changed: late share 75% at worst → 0% now
Of 24 departures that took off between 6:00 PM and 7:00 PM CST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 42% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:00 PM–7:00 PM CSTSample 24 flightsLate 0%Typical 42%
Of 14 departures that took off between 3:47 PM and 4:47 PM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 3:47 PM–4:47 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 64%Typical 36%
What changed: late share 56% at worst → 4% now
Of 26 departures that took off between 12:57 PM and 1:57 PM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 12:57 PM–1:57 PM CSTSample 26 flightsLate 4%Typical 24%
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