Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories 1 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 86 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
What changed: 56% → 67% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Saturday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 53% → 57% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 57% → 68% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Saturday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 18 departures that took off between 10:52 AM and 11:52 AM EST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:52 AM–11:52 AM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 72%Typical 23%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (2)View MIA
What changed: 41% → 53% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 53%Horizon 10.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 51% → 59% since the 3:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 41%Horizon 11.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 55% → 56% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 89 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 29 departures that took off between 8:28 AM and 9:28 AM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 10% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:28 AM–9:28 AM ESTSample 29 flightsLate 41%Typical 10%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (2)View MIA
What changed: 50% → 57% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 8.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 44% → 55% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 89 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 5.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 36% → 50% since the 1:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from Miami 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 47% → 36% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from Miami 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 36%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from Miami 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 47%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 9:52 PM and 10:52 PM EST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 76% → 87% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 7:25 PM and 8:25 PM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Miami typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 18 arrivals that landed between 5:22 PM and 6:22 PM EST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Miami arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
FAA-reported departure delays at Miami (MIA) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:15 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:09 PM EST.
The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 76–90 min at Miami (MIA), citing “TM INITIATIVES:STOP:NAS GS”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.
FAA-reported departure delays at Miami (MIA) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:00 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 4:36 PM EST.
What changed: 50% → 76% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.