tailodds FORECAST

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Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.

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Passenger events at your flight's airports

Enter a flight: you see events at its departure and arrival airports, including tight aircraft turns there. Your own flight’s inbound aircraft is on its flight page.

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Departures: events affecting flights leaving the airport. Arrivals: flights going to it.

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“Today” and dates above start at midnight in this zone. Each item shows its airport’s local time; hover a time for UTC.

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Type: Inbound aircraft ×Airport: PHL × Clear filters
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EST, Nov 13 4 h ago
Observed Significant New Inbound aircraft PHL departures

Philadelphia: 9 of 20 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

Of the 25 departures scheduled from Philadelphia (PHL) between 11:42 AM and 1:12 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 20. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into PHL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

Next 11:42 AM–1:12 PM ESTTight turns 9 of 20Share 45%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules Timeline (1) View PHL
EST, Nov 6 7 days ago
Observed Significant Resolved Inbound aircraft PHL departures

Philadelphia: 11 of 18 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn

Of the 23 departures scheduled from Philadelphia (PHL) between 12:02 PM and 1:32 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 18. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into PHL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

Next 12:02 PM–1:32 PM ESTTight turns 11 of 18Share 61%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules Timeline (1) View PHL
EDT, Oct 23 20 days ago
Observed Informational Resolved Recovery Inbound aircraft PHL departures

Philadelphia aircraft turns back near normal: 2 of 24 departures in the next 90 min are tight

What changed: tight share 43% at worst → 8% now

Of the 31 departures scheduled from Philadelphia (PHL) between 9:21 PM and 10:51 PM EDT, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 24. For 2 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into PHL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.

Next 9:21 PM–10:51 PM EDTTight turns 2 of 24Share 8%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View PHL
EDT, Oct 23 20 days ago
Observed Informational Resolved Recovery Inbound aircraft PHL departures

Philadelphia aircraft turns back near normal: 2 of 29 departures in the next 90 min are tight

What changed: tight share 35% at worst → 7% now

Of the 41 departures scheduled from Philadelphia (PHL) between 5:58 PM and 7:28 PM EDT, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 29. For 2 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into PHL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.

Next 5:58 PM–7:28 PM EDTTight turns 2 of 29Share 7%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View PHL

Each item is the latest update matching your filters; the event’s current status is on its chip. All updates shows the full chronological wire.

Confirmed
An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?

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