Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
What changed: 34% → 31%; calm-weather level 21%
Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Seattle noon–3 PM Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 31%Horizon 6.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 22 departures that took off between 11:11 PM and 12:11 AM PST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 20% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:11 PM–12:11 AM PSTSample 22 flightsLate 50%Typical 20%
What changed: late share 66% → 48%
Of 27 arrivals that landed between 10:20 PM and 11:20 PM PST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:20 PM–11:20 PM PSTSample 27 flightsLate 48%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 46% at worst → 12% now
Of 33 departures that took off between 5:41 PM and 6:41 PM PST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:41 PM–6:41 PM PSTSample 33 flightsLate 12%Typical 24%
What changed: late share 43% at worst → 15% now
Of 34 departures that took off between 1:22 PM and 2:22 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 1:22 PM–2:22 PM PSTSample 34 flightsLate 15%Typical 22%
What changed: late share 44% at worst → 19% now
Of 31 arrivals that landed between 11:44 AM and 12:44 PM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 11:44 AM–12:44 PM PSTSample 31 flightsLate 19%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 68% → 53%
Of 36 arrivals that landed between 9:24 PM and 10:24 PM PST, 19 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:24 PM–10:24 PM PSTSample 36 flightsLate 53%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 59% at worst → 25% now
Of 24 arrivals that landed between 4:04 PM and 5:04 PM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 4:04 PM–5:04 PM PSTSample 24 flightsLate 25%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 58% at worst → 24% now
Of 29 arrivals that landed between 11:46 AM and 12:46 PM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 11:46 AM–12:46 PM PSTSample 29 flightsLate 24%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 53% at worst → 8% now
Of 24 departures that took off between 10:31 PM and 11:31 PM PST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 20% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:31 PM–11:31 PM PSTSample 24 flightsLate 8%Typical 20%
What changed: late share 63% at worst → 21% now
Of 29 departures that took off between 8:03 PM and 9:03 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 8:03 PM–9:03 PM PSTSample 29 flightsLate 21%Typical 26%
What changed: late share 62% → 55%
Of 31 arrivals that landed between 7:40 PM and 8:40 PM PST, 17 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:40 PM–8:40 PM PSTSample 31 flightsLate 55%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 52% at worst → 13% now
Of 23 departures that took off between 5:34 PM and 6:34 PM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:34 PM–6:34 PM PSTSample 23 flightsLate 13%Typical 24%
What changed: 45% → 31%; calm-weather level 18%
Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Seattle 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 31%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 89% at worst → 16% now
Of 31 departures that took off between 1:14 PM and 2:14 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 1:14 PM–2:14 PM PSTSample 31 flightsLate 16%Typical 22%
What changed: late share 83% at worst → 7% now
Of 14 departures that took off between 6:10 AM and 7:10 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 7% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 17% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:10 AM–7:10 AM PSTSample 14 flightsLate 7%Typical 7%
What changed: late share 88% at worst → 7% now
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 5:31 AM and 6:31 AM PST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:31 AM–6:31 AM PSTSample 15 flightsLate 7%Typical 19%
What changed: 44% → 26%; calm-weather level 16%
Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Seattle noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 26% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 26%Horizon 6.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 43% → 22%; calm-weather level 15%
Tailodds’ model gives the 119 departures scheduled from Seattle 9 AM–noon Tuesday an average 22% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 22%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 50% at worst → 12% now
Of 26 departures that took off between 5:36 PM and 6:36 PM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:36 PM–6:36 PM PSTSample 26 flightsLate 12%Typical 24%
What changed: late share 48% at worst → 29% now
Of 21 arrivals that landed between 3:50 PM and 4:50 PM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 3:50 PM–4:50 PM PSTSample 21 flightsLate 29%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 42% at worst → 15% now
Of 26 arrivals that landed between 11:23 AM and 12:23 PM PST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 11:23 AM–12:23 PM PSTSample 26 flightsLate 15%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 82% at worst → 0% now
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 5:32 AM and 6:32 AM PST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:32 AM–6:32 AM PSTSample 16 flightsLate 0%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 48% at worst → 4% now
Of 25 departures that took off between 5:15 PM and 6:15 PM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:15 PM–6:15 PM PSTSample 25 flightsLate 4%Typical 23%
What changed: late share 68% at worst → 7% now
Of 27 arrivals that landed between 3:48 PM and 4:48 PM PST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 3:48 PM–4:48 PM PSTSample 27 flightsLate 7%Typical 19%
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