tailodds FORECAST

Wire

Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.

Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 86 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

News desk major developments and corrections Airport operations restrictions, deterioration, recovery
Passenger events at your flight's airports

Enter a flight: you see events at its departure and arrival airports, including tight aircraft turns there. Your own flight’s inbound aircraft is on its flight page.

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Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.

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Departures: events affecting flights leaving the airport. Arrivals: flights going to it.

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“Today” and dates above start at midnight in this zone. Each item shows its airport’s local time; hover a time for UTC.

Clear
Type: Inbound aircraft ×Airport: SEA × Clear filters
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Latest per event All updates
PST, Nov 12 4 h ago
Observed Informational Resolved Recovery Inbound aircraft SEA departures

Seattle aircraft turns back near normal: 1 of 14 departures in the next 90 min are tight

What changed: tight share 43% at worst → 7% now

Of the 17 departures scheduled from Seattle (SEA) between 11:08 PM and 12:38 AM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 14. For 1 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SEA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.

Next 11:08 PM–12:38 AM PSTTight turns 1 of 14Share 7%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View SEA
PST, Nov 9 3 days ago
Observed Informational Resolved Recovery Inbound aircraft SEA departures

Seattle aircraft turns back near normal: 0 of 14 departures in the next 90 min are tight

What changed: tight share 32% at worst → 0% now

Of the 42 departures scheduled from Seattle (SEA) between 6:07 AM and 7:37 AM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 14. For 0 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SEA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.

Next 6:07 AM–7:37 AM PSTTight turns 0 of 14Share 0%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View SEA
PST, Nov 7 5 days ago
Observed Informational Resolved Recovery Inbound aircraft SEA departures

Seattle aircraft turns back near normal: 0 of 12 departures in the next 90 min are tight

What changed: tight share 30% at worst → 0% now

Of the 26 departures scheduled from Seattle (SEA) between 5:45 AM and 7:15 AM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 12. For 0 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SEA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.

Next 5:45 AM–7:15 AM PSTTight turns 0 of 12Share 0%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View SEA
PST, Nov 6 6 days ago
Observed Informational Resolved Recovery Inbound aircraft SEA departures

Seattle aircraft turns back near normal: 2 of 17 departures in the next 90 min are tight

What changed: tight share 35% at worst → 12% now

Of the 38 departures scheduled from Seattle (SEA) between 4:42 PM and 6:12 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 2 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SEA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.

Next 4:42 PM–6:12 PM PSTTight turns 2 of 17Share 12%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View SEA

Each item is the latest update matching your filters; the event’s current status is on its chip. All updates shows the full chronological wire.

Confirmed
An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?

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