Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from San Jose noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Wire
Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Partly stale · checked
FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 75 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 7 min
News desk major developments and corrections
Airport operations restrictions, deterioration, recovery
Airline analyst not yet available
Passenger events at your flight's airports
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Filters (2)
Your alerts
Show details
San Jose arrivals running late: 54% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour
54% lateOf 13 arrivals that landed between 9:52 PM and 10:52 PM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at San Jose arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Open event ›
View SJC
Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 12:39 PM and 1:39 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Open event ›
View SJC
Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 12:40 PM and 1:40 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Open event ›
View SJC
Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Monday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 12:50 PM and 1:50 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Open event ›
View SJC
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from San Jose noon–3 PM Monday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 12:27 PM and 1:27 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Open event ›
View SJC
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 14 departures that took off between 1:11 PM and 2:11 PM PDT, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Open event ›
View SJC
Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 14 departures that took off between 2:15 PM and 3:15 PM PDT, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Open event ›
View SJC
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Monday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 15 departures that took off between 12:58 PM and 1:58 PM PDT, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. San Jose typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Open event ›
View SJC
Show all 2 updates
Model raises San Jose departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 57%
▲ 46% → 57% since the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from San Jose 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Show all 2 updates
Model raises San Jose departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 58%
▲ 45% → 58% since the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from San Jose 3–6 PM Friday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Older items One row per event, newest activity first; + opens every update on the event. Times are EST.
- Confirmed
- An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
- Observed
- We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
- Forecast
- Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?