Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 48% → 57% since the 7:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 53% → 59% since the 6:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 59%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 40% → 53% since the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Saturday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 53%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 41% → 30%; calm-weather level 16%
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 30%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 40%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 41%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 50% → 81% since the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Friday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 81%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 59% → 87% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 87%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 48% → 59% since the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 59%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 43%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 22.1 hModel famA-fc-v3
Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 21.5 hModel famA-fc-v3
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:00 PM and 12:00 AM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:00 PM–12:00 AM PSTSample 14 flightsLate 43%Typical 19%
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 8:06 PM and 9:06 PM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:06 PM–9:06 PM PSTSample 14 flightsLate 43%Typical 19%
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 62%Horizon 3.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 68%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 12 departures that took off between 12:56 PM and 1:56 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Sacramento typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:56 PM–1:56 PM PSTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 24%
What changed: 34% → 32%; calm-weather level 25%
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 32%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 50% → 34% since the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 34%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Older items Every published update, newest first.