Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 7 min
What changed: about 5 → 4 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 36 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 40%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 11 → 3 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 37 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 24 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (24%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 1:53 PM PST. The latest, at 2:23 PM PST, reports mist, ceiling 10000 ft, visibility 5 mi, wind 7 kt.
What changed: 50% → 81% since the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Friday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 81%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 59% → 87% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 43%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:00 PM and 12:00 AM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:00 PM–12:00 AM PSTSample 14 flightsLate 43%Typical 19%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View SMF
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 8:06 PM and 9:06 PM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 12:56 PM and 1:56 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Sacramento typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 6:53 PM PST. The latest, at 7:39 PM PST, reports ceiling 8500 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 9 kt.
What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 2:53 PM PST. The latest, at 3:28 PM PST, reports mist, ceiling 3700 ft, visibility 6 mi, wind 5 kt.
What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 11:53 AM PST. The latest, at 12:27 PM PST, reports mist, ceiling 5000 ft, visibility 3 mi, wind 6 kt.
What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for Sacramento (SMF) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 10:53 AM PST. The latest, at 11:26 AM PST, reports haze, ceiling 6500 ft, visibility 6 mi, wind 0 kt.
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Confirmed
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Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?