Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1234
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
F9 1234 · MCO → RDU
departs 3:38 PM ET · arrives 5:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 24%
Thu 10/1 28%
Fri 10/2 27%
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.