Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5768 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow

YX 5768 · DCA → LGA

departs 8:40 PM ET · arrives 9:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±4 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5768 · DCA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?